Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,076 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both the moneyline and futures today. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 71–52–4, we’re up 14.41 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –107). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August has been off to a good start.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 79.59 units, or 7.7%.
Game 1: Washington @ Philadelphia
We don’t love betting doubleheaders, but there are a lot of baseball bets we don’t love this time of year, so we’re choosing the lesser of a few evils on today’s board. We would think that with their best pitcher on the mound, the Phillies would go after the opening game. We’re hoping the rainout yesterday didn’t mess with his routine, but Wheeler’s consistent enough year over year that we don’t think he’s too fickle.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –260. Low confidence. (Williams and Wheeler must start.)
NL Central
We’re going with the same futures as yesterday. First, the Brewers, who had a good night last night, winning while the Cubs lost. The Reds remain in the picture, but they’re a clear third in the probabilities, and the Cubs are a clear second. It’s the Brewers’ division to lose.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +100. Medium confidence.
ALCS
The AL East is no one’s division to lose, per se, sitting as something of a tossup between the Orioles and the Rays. If the Rays do win it, this is going to be good value. If the Rays don’t, this isn’t going to be good value, but it should still be a live play heading into the playoffs, because for Tampa Bay to miss the playoffs outright at this point would be shocking. We’ll take it.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +350. Medium confidence.
