Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,638 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 114–99–3 so far, down 8.67 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
New York (NL) @ Colorado
I think the reason these odds are available at this affordable of a price is the Mets’ recent travel. They played three in Anaheim this weekend. They played one in St. Louis yesterday afternoon. Now, they’re in Denver, at altitude, having flown twice in two days.
Fatigue’s not nothing, but I’m not sure the impact should be this pronounced. The Mets are a lot better than the Rockies, and they’re coming off a big win yesterday which kept them just outside of playoff position. Altitude effects are real, but there’s some thought that they show up more on the second day of the series than the first.
We’re getting better than –150 on a possible playoff team against one of the worst teams in baseball. We’re going to take it.
Pick: New York (NL) to win –142. Low confidence. (Severino and Freeland must start.)
Detroit @ Seattle
Keider Montero ate seven innings for the Tigers on Thursday, but he did allow four earned runs, and he’s given up six long balls in his last three starts. The Mariners’ bullpen got a much-needed break yesterday and should have Luis Castillo’s back tonight. Layups aren’t a 100% shot, but this is a layup.
Pick: Seattle to win –195. Low confidence. (Montero and Castillo must start.)
Chicago (AL) @ Oakland
We’re paying a big premium, but as we keep discussing, what’s wrong with the White Sox is unmeasurable. We don’t know how bad they are. We’ll take them to set the AL record tonight, with sights on tying the MLB record tomorrow. Ross Stripling has a solid xERA and FIP.
Pick: Oakland to win –220. Low confidence. (Cannon and Stripling must start.)
NLCS
In some ways, the Padres have provided cover for the Diamondbacks during the pair’s parallel surge. The Padres have led the Diamondbacks the whole way, and while the D-Backs have a recent pennant to speak of, the Padres’ current core has made more playoffs and been more relevant than that of their secondary division rival, raising their notoriety.
Whether that’s the reason or not, people are sleeping more on Arizona than San Diego despite the pair being tied in today’s standings and only 0.7 games apart in FanGraphs’s projected end-of-season standings. There’s uncertainty around Arizona because of their rotation health, but there’s more uncertainty around healthy teams than people often realize. The value remains great here.
Pick: Arizona to win +1800. Medium confidence.
World Series
Should we be doubling up each day on the more valuable of the two markets? Or should we be spreading it out like this? In the D-Backs’ case, the difference in expected value is small enough to make the question fairly meaningless. We’ll continue to err on the side of spreading it around.
Pick: Arizona to win +3500. Medium confidence.
