Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 413 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. This is because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Miami @ New York (NL)
Héctor Noesí will start tonight’s game for the Marlins, in what is his first major league appearance since 2015.
Noesí came up with the Yankees in 2011, pitching his way to a 4.47 ERA (and a 4.09 FIP) over roughly 56 MLB innings, the majority of which came from the bullpen. The Yankees traded him to Seattle that offseason in part of a deal for Michael Pineda. Outside of New York, Noesí struggled. In 2012, he put up a 5.82 ERA and a 5.53 FIP, mostly as a starter. In 2013, back in the bullpen, he threw only 27 MLB innings, and they didn’t go well: a 6.59 ERA, though his FIP was only 4.36. Finally, the Mariners had enough, and Noesí bounced around in 2014, eventually landing with the White Sox.
In Chicago, he was a solid starter at first, with a 4.75 ERA for the season in 2014 (4.83 FIP). But in 2015, things worsened, and with a 6.89 ERA legitimized by a 6.23 FIP, the South Siders cut him loose.
Presumably out of options, it was off to Korea, where Noesí pitched from 2016-2018 with the Kia Tigers. Now, as a few starters have successfully done, he’ll try re-entering the MLB.
The Marlins picked up the right-hander this offseason, and he’s been a regular part of the New Orleans rotation. Over 21 starts and 125 innings, he has a 3.82 ERA, but his FIP’s a concerning 5.32. The Pacific Coast League is a high-scoring environment, but New Orleans itself is not particularly run-potent, so this is concerning, but it’s worth noting that Zac Gallen and Elieser Hernández, two other pitchers who jumped from New Orleans to Miami this year, demonstrated FIP’s with a similar relationship to their ERA, with the difference specifically coming from a high LOB% in both cases, as it does with Noesí’s. It’s also worth noting that Noesí’s home run to fly ball ratio is an uncommonly high 20.8% at AAA, which brings his xFIP down to a more comfortable 4.71.
How Héctor Noesí will perform tonight is unknowable, but whatever the case, he’s getting another chance. We’ll see how it goes.
Pick: Miami +1.5 (+120). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Houston
The last time Zack Greinke changed locales in the middle of a season, it was 2012. He’d been traded from the Brewers to the Angels at the deadline, and while he eventually rattled off some very impressive starts for his new team (at one point he lasted seven or more innings in six straight starts, allowing two or fewer runs in each), it took a while for him to get to that form. Overall, his FIP ended up at 3.89 in Anaheim, which was very good, but not as good as the 2.53 he’d posted in Milwaukee prior to the trade.
Greinke might settle right into his role in Houston. He might be better. He might be worse. The Milwaukee/Anaheim thing was a sample size of one, so little should be made of it. The most likely outcome is that he continues to be the same very good pitcher he’s been. But Greinke’s known for being unconventional among professional baseball players in terms of his personality. If things don’t go splendidly right away, don’t be surprised to hear a baseless narrative thrown around regarding his adjustment to a new environment.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 (-105). Low confidence.
St. Louis @ Los Angeles
Miles Mikolas was one of the best stories on the 2018 Cardinals. In his first year back after three seasons in Asia, the formerly replacement-level right-hander pumped out a 2.83 ERA and a 3.28 FIP over 200 innings.
This season, things didn’t start off so well. Through six starts, his FIP stood at 6.12.
Since May dawned, though, Mikolas has been a new pitcher, which is to say he’s been about as good as the one he was last year. His ERA from May through July was a strong 3.52, with a 3.53 FIP to back it up. After allowing eight home runs in those first six outings, he’s allowed only nine in the 16 since. And his walk rate has similarly improved, from an already good 5.5% before April 30th to a top-five-among-qualified-starters 3.5% in the months since.
Mikolas is not one of the best pitchers in baseball. But he might be the best pitcher on the Cardinals. And with no other great options for a Wild Card Game starter, that could be a noteworthy fact in two months.
Pick: St. Louis +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
