Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,491 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One future today, and the line for that comes from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Baltimore @ New York (AL)
I’m not going to be the idiot that says Nestor Cortes is better than Gerrit Cole, but pound per pound against the odds, he probably does more for you. You can project him magnitudes more conservatively than his small-sample 32.2 IP, 2.40 xERA, 2.18 FIP performance on the year implies and still find some value here. His last time out, Wednesday at Tropicana Field, he allowed one run on five strikeouts and no walks. The guy can deal.
Alex Wells, meanwhile, is eating innings for the Orioles. And while the Orioles have been rather competitive of late (10-5 over their last fifteen), they’ve also not been competitive of late (11-13 over their last 24).
Pick: New York (AL) to win -250. Low confidence.
ALCS – Division of Champion
We liked this at these exact odds yesterday, then the Blue Jays and Yankees lost, increasing the probability the A’s make the playoff field. For fervent followers, this means the Red Sox are no longer a profitable ALCS route, strictly speaking in terms of the ALCS market, but it means profitability from the A’s and—1-in-1,000—the Mariners, with Boston still a part of a lot of profitable overall routes (and our good-value World Series play on them from June still good-value).
Pick: AL West +300. Low confidence.
