Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,517 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The odds for the future come from Bovada due to the lack of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Pittsburgh @ Chicago (AL)
Lucas Giolito’s been solid lately, the White Sox will miss Tim Anderson if he rests but not enough to dramatically alter the landscape here.
Pick: Chicago (AL) -1.5 (-165). Low confidence.
ALCS
And on the topic of the White Sox, the Rays taking what may be a decisive lead in the East helps their cause in the pennant race. While the best realistic case for the South Siders would be one in which the Astros caught the Rays yet the Rays held off the Yankees, anything that limits the probability of the Red Sox or Yankees reaching the ALCS helps Chicago. The Rays are a great team, and expecting them to not defy the numbers is perilous, but there’s reason to believe they’ll falter in October, while the nature of those games gives teams like the Yankees and Red Sox, with their better-pedigreed aces, a leg up.
The value here isn’t high, but it’s positive, and whenever it’s positive with the Sox we’ll take it as we get a little closer to cornering this market, and at the very least raise our floor.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +300. Low confidence.
