Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,397 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For unit context, we started the portfolio with 520 units available to bet and 520 more in reserve, should we need them for hedging down the line. We have yet to tap into the hedging units.
ALCS
The value on these guys remains so high. We just can’t pass it up right now.
The leverage this is most likely to create will come in the Wild Card Series, at least as things currently stand. If we can’t get another pennant pick down on the eventual AL Central champion before the regular season ends, our hedging interests will be on them, the Astros, and the Yankees, meaning we’ll want to hedge on the AL Central team prior to the Wild Card Series itself and then most likely try our luck, at least momentarily, with the other two. The Rays will enter the postseason a longshot, barring something really unexpected happening this last month-plus. But they shouldn’t be as large of a longshot as they currently are. This is a team that’s comparable to the Yankees on paper, even if the Astros are the much better outfit.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +2000. Medium confidence.
World Series
Again, leverage here. Atlanta’s currently looking aimed straight for a Division Series clash with the Dodgers, and while we won’t discount their Wild Card Series foe (all three of the Phillies, Padres, and Brewers are scary in a best-of-three set), we’ll have value on that foe and it’s unlikely we’ll have any on Los Angeles. The farther we stretch this rubber band, the more space we’ll have to use it to pull the Dodgers upwards in our scenarios grid. Barring calamity, these odds will drop over the next month. Even if Atlanta, as expected, loses the race in the East.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1200. Medium confidence.
