Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,388 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
MLB futures while the trade deadline spins madly on. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line.
ALCS
We wrote earlier today about how Jose Siri could go down as the biggest acquisition of the deadline. This is tongue in cheek, of course, but he’s a nice pickup for Tampa Bay, who was already in a solid spot as far as making the playoffs was concerned. The Red Sox not going full seller does hold them back a bit, but they’re still playoff-likely, and grabbing them 1) while they’re valuable and 2) at these odds should keep them a profitable route for us for a while.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +2200. Medium confidence.
NLCS
The Phillies aren’t expected to do anything massive, though they could add a good starter. Regardless, they’re helped by the Cardinals not acquiring Juan Soto, and they were merely a break-even route for us entering today. We’ll pump them back up as a scenario for the NL pennant in our assortment.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +2500. Medium confidence.
