Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,701 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures and moneylines.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 147–124–3 so far this year, down 5.97 units. Over the last 19 days, we’ve been trying a different collection of approaches. So far, that effort is 35–22, up 6.83 units. We’re over halfway back to even, but we’ve been over halfway back to even before.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Kansas City @ Cleveland
Heat Index is now 16–3, up 6.59 units. We’re sticking with it even as it tries a little heat check here. The Royals are hot. The Guardians are very cold. But this is biggest underdog Heat Index has every chosen.
Pick: Kansas City to win +146. Low confidence. (Lorenzen and Williams must start.)
Anaheim @ Detroit
Heat Index 2 (Heat Index’s second choice) is now 4–0, up 3.42 units. For now, we’re sticking with it as well. It likes the Tigers tonight once the rain moves through. Over the last three weeks, they’re the second-best pitching team in the league. Is some of that having faced the White Sox and Mariners a combined ten times? Probably. But Heat Index, for better or worse, doesn’t worry about strength of schedule.
Pick: Detroit to win –149. Low confidence. (Cueto and Hurter must start.)
Toronto @ Boston
Heat Index 3?? That’s new today. We’re giving up on hunting underdogs and giving this a try. We have some options if it goes badly.
This is more about the Red Sox being cold than the Blue Jays being hot, but Toronto has been playing well. They’re especially hitting the ball well, which has to be heartening for a team that decided to hold onto some valuable young sluggers at the deadline.
Pick: Toronto to win +118. Low confidence. (Rodríguez and Criswell must start.)
World Series
Value’s tight right now in futures markets, but it’s far from absent. The two top options heading into tonight are the Braves and the Padres, two teams whose pitching might be better than the public realizes. They don’t have their Wild Card spots entirely locked up, but they’re in strong positions to be present in October. We’ll happily load up.
Pick: San Diego to win +1400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1800. Medium confidence.
