Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 474 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia
After the All-Star Break, it started to look like Drew Smyly was turning things around. The 30-year-old lefty, coming back after missing 2018 following Tommy John surgery, was dumped from the Cubs to the Rangers prior to the year. In Texas, he posted an 8.42 ERA and 8.04 FIP over nine starts (roughly 50 innings) before being released.
But after the All-Star Break, after joining the Phillies’ rotation (following a stint in Milwaukee’s minor league system), he rattled off three straight starts in which he averaged six innings, nearly seven strikeouts, and fewer than two walks. He allowed just one home run, and his FIP over the starts was 2.38, backing a 3.00 ERA.
Then, it all came crashing back down. In his last three appearances, Smyly’s lasted an average of fewer than five innings, allowed six home runs, and averaged fewer than five strikeouts alongside nearly three walks. His season-to-date FIP is a glaring 6.92, and his ERA is even worse at 6.99.
Smyly’s walk rate is in the league’s worst ten percent. His xWOBA’s even worse, in the league’s worst three percent. It’s possible he’s better than this. But signs he is have been few and far between.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win (+125). Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ New York (NL)
Amed Rosario was supposed to be special. FanGraphs had him labeled the third-best prospect in baseball when he debuted in 2017. But while other youngsters in his division have flourished, Rosario has been only ok. He posted a 75 wRC+ in the third of a season he spent at the MLB level upon debuting, then followed it with an 85 in his first full year, good for 1.5 fWAR, which isn’t nothing but doesn’t measure up to the Juan Soto’s of the world.
Through the first three months of 2019, it was more of the same. An 85 wRC+, combined with similarly solid-not-exceptional defense, putting him on pace for about 1.5 WAR again.
Then July came.
And Rosario got hot.
Since July began, Rosario’s managed a 133 wRC+, and since the All-Star Break he’s been the Mets’ most valuable position player, accumulating 1.3 fWAR in six and a half weeks.
On the one side, it might just be a hot streak, but if it is, it’s significant enough that it would take a jarring slump for this year to not represent a major step forward for Rosario. On the other, it could be the beginning of a full-on breakout.
Pick: New York (NL) to win (+100). Low confidence.
Tampa Bay @ Houston
Justin Verlander is, at this point, the favorite to win the American League’s Cy Young Award. And that’s fair. He leads the AL in innings pitched. His ERA is second to only to that of his teammate, Gerrit Cole, among qualified AL starters. He leads the MLB in strikeouts. He leads AL pitchers in Win Probability Added.
But Verlander is not going to run away with things. And Charlie Morton is one of a few reasons why.
Morton’s only thrown 161 innings, finding himself subject to a quicker hook than his former teammate. His walk and strikeout rates are worse than those of Verlander. But he’s allowed only twelve home runs to Verlander’s 33, and he tops the AL in FIP, trailing only Lance Lynn in fWAR.
Morton might not beat Verlander in sheer runs-allowed results, but overall, it’s fair to say he’s been the more effective pitcher in 2019. Tonight, he gets the chance to make his case in direct fashion.
Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-135). Low confidence.
