Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 988 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Game 1: Anaheim @ Houston
Cristian Javier has dramatically outperformed his FIP so far, and has mildly outperformed his xwOBA. José Suarez is coming off a disastrous 2019 and a disastrous first start in 2020. It’s only seven innings, but the over looks good enough to warrant action, even with Alex Bregman out and George Springer potentially sidelined (they’re worth about half a run over their likely replacements, bringing our mean projection down to 9.1).
Pick: Over 8 (-105). Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ Washington
The Nationals’ pitching staff is in the bottom half of the MLB in ERA, FIP, and fWAR—all the big indicators. That’s despite having Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin in the rotation, and having had a little bit of Stephen Strasburg before he went down for the year.
Things are bleak for the defending champions.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Kansas City @ St. Louis
We continue to ride the Cardinals.
Pick: St. Louis -1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
