Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,393 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For context on the unit size: We started the season with 520 units ready to bet on MLB futures and another 520 in reserve.
ALCS
We’re leaning on these two again today, with each winning last night and no new value materializing elsewhere (none is presently particularly close, but shifts happen fast in these markets). This puts us in a position where, for the AL pennant race, we’re getting more and more into a mode of Wild Cards vs. The Field. We have high upside on Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Toronto. This makes our biggest threats not presently the Yankees and Astros, but instead the Orioles, Red Sox, and the AL Central trio.
In related news, our new best outcome is a World Series in which Atlanta triumphs over Tampa Bay.
Pick: Seattle to win +1600. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +2000. Medium confidence.
