Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,393 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For context on the unit size: We started the season with 520 units ready to bet on MLB futures and another 520 in reserve.
ALCS
The Rays’ playoff chances took a hit over the weekend with Wander Franco’s setback, but then yesterday, they grabbed a win and the Twins lost and the White Sox lost and…that all means something. The thing about injuries at this stage in the season is that they only translate, on paper, to so many wins and losses. Come playoff time, it’s a little different—and if Franco doesn’t make it back for the playoffs, the Rays will be at a disadvantage relative to their current outlook—but at these odds, it’s more about whether or not Tampa Bay will make the playoffs. On paper, the continued injury to Franco pulls the Rays down a little, but hardly by as much as yesterday’s favorable pair of results pushes them upwards.
Meanwhile, there’s still value on the Mariners, and we don’t hate the AL pennant outlook where our portfolio has a ton of upside on all three wild cards and only meaningful downside on one other team.
Pick: Seattle to win +1400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +2000. Medium confidence.
