Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,678 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures and single-game MLB bets.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 136–117–3 so far this year, down 8.14 units. We’re trying three new approaches, something we started the Thursday before last. So far, that effort is 22–14, up 4.73 units. It’s still a small sample, but it’s been a nice week and a half.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Chicago (AL) @ San Francisco
When we started Heat Index, we were looking for a recent sample. We decided to consider only performance between the All-Star Break and the present. Now that we’re three weeks past the trade deadline, though, we can find other significant recent inflection points. So, tomorrow we’ll tighten our window, only considering games between July 31st and the present. I’m not sure how this will change things. I suspect we’ll still be betting against the White Sox a lot.
Heat Index is 10–2 so far, up 3.80 units.
Pick: San Francisco to win –235. Low confidence. (Martin and Ray must start.)
Boston @ Houston
We’ve lost three straight bets on the smallest favorite, bringing us to a 7–5 record and a +1.49-unit balance on these picks. We’re considering cutting this soon and attempting following Heat Index’s second choice in its place, but we don’t want to cut a good thing too early. For at least today and most likely tomorrow, the smallest favorite rides on.
Pick: Houston to win –107. Low confidence. (Pivetta and Blanco must start.)
Seattle @ Los Angeles
Our underdog lost last night, dropping us to a 5–7 record and a balance 0.65 units below even. Our run differential only dropped to +8, though, so we remain cautiously bullish on this one. Even if it has us picking the ice-cold Mariners tonight.
(It would have picked the White Sox had Heat Index not ruled them out. The Mariners are ice cold, but there are things colder than ice.)
Pick: Seattle to win +132. Low confidence. (Miller and Buehler must start.)
NLCS
The Padres aren’t quite “right on the Dodgers’ tail.” The Dodgers have done enough to keep them at arm’s reach, and the Dodgers should be expected to win more games than their neighbors between now and the end of the year. Still, things look rosy for the Padres. With Arizona and Atlanta banged up, the Padres are looking likelier than ever to grab home field advantage in the Wild Card Series. With the Brewers and Phillies still in the mix for the NL 1-seed, there’s a chance San Diego could avoid a trip to LA in the NLDS. They’re not the pennant favorites or anything, but the value here is good.
Pick: San Diego to win +700. Medium confidence.
World Series
Also good is the value on the Yankees. My personal theory with these guys is that their fans are so frustrated and pessimistic after years of good teams letting them down that they’re obscuring how good this team is. When it comes to who’s going to finish with the best record in baseball, the Yankees are right beside the Dodgers at the top of the list.
The division situation is scary. The Orioles are a tough team to put away. But the chance Baltimore finishes the year ahead is overstated, and that’s creating opportunity here.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +610. Medium confidence.
