Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 452 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Philadelphia @ Boston
Aaron Nola, at 26, is probably still rounding into form. Last season, in what was his first full, healthy year at the MLB level, he finished ninth among qualified pitchers in fWAR, tenth in FIP, and fourth in ERA, winding up third in the NL Cy Young race. But his 2019 has not gone as well:
2018: 2.37 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 27.0% K-rate, 7.0% BB-rate
2019: 3.56 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 26.6% K-rate, 9.2% BB-rate
If you cut out his first five starts of the year, though, which account for about a sixth of his innings, you get a much different picture:
April 25th to Present: 2.92 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 27.0% K-rate, 8.9% BB-rate
The walks are, of course, not the best, and excluding those five starts only roughly halves the ERA and FIP gaps from 2018 to this year. Still, a 3.68 FIP is very good—good enough that it would rank 20th among qualified starters on the year.
Aaron Nola has a lot of career ahead of him. A mildly worse performance in 2019 than 2018 does dampen the expectations, but not by much.
Pick: Philadelphia to win (-102). Low confidence.
Detroit @ Houston
Yordan Álvarez and Brandon Lowe probably have the lead over Spencer Turnbull right now in the AL Rookie of the Year race. But Turnbull isn’t out of it, and he’s almost certain to find himself on a high number of ballots.
Turnbull dropped down the prospect rankings from 2016 through 2018 as he battled problems with his elbow and shoulder. Entering this year, MLB Pipeline described him as a possible “candidate” for the Tigers’ starting rotation “if it all clicks.”
It must have all clicked and then some, as Turnbull has gone from an unheralded sinkerballer to one of the best rookies in baseball/the Tigers’ clear second-best starter.
Turnbull has pivoted away from that sinker this year. After throwing it on 42.6% of pitches in his very short (16 innings, roughly) MLB stint last season, its use has diminished by more than half to 19.5%, while his four-seam frequency has risen from 20.9% to 44.9%. His 2018 results came from such a small sample that it’s hard to say whether this worked or not, but it’s notable, given his former reputation. While he still tends towards ground balls, he’s not an extreme pitcher in that sense, as he was for much of his minor-league career.
Whether still a ground ball guy or not, Turnbull’s doing something right. And it’s casting a lot of hope on the Tigers’ future plans.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (+120). Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Oakland
Homer Bailey’s ERA has jumped in the wrong way since coming to Oakland. After posting a 4.80 in the metric in Kansas City, it’s at 6.40 over his six Oakland starts, for a 5.22 on the year.
His FIP, though, has improved: 4.48 in Kansas City, 4.17 in Oakland, 4.40 for the full season.
In other words, while it may look like things have gone south for the veteran since moving to Oakland, that’s likely mostly a function of luck. In reality, he’s about the same as he’s been the whole year. And that, while not extraordinary, is certainly serviceable.
Pick: Oakland to win (+114). Low confidence.
