Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 973 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Colorado @ Houston
I don’t know whether the roof’s going to be open today at Minute Maid Park, and I lack data on the impact of that variable. In theory, though, with the wind-in-from-right a light wind and the heat/humidity favorable for hitters, even if the roof is open, it should be close to a net wash. With our numbers projecting this as a 10.5 total, roof uncertainty shouldn’t stop you.
Pick: Over 9 (-105). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Anaheim
Dylan Bundy has started the season phenomenally, racking up a 1.57 ERA over nearly 30 innings across three starts. His FIP is similarly outstanding, checking in at 2.21. Besides Shane Bieber and perhaps Sonny Gray, he’s been the most valuable pitcher in the league.
Bundy’s performance so far has been enough to dramatically change projections on him. FanGraphs now has him slated for a 4.12 FIP across the season (according to their Depth Charts aggregator). That’s very good, and a lot better than where he started the year.
Still, 4.12’s a long way from 2.21. Some regression is going to happen. And while it’s fair to treat Dylan Bundy as an ace, and in a shortened season he may well turn into a Cy Young contender, he’s still not Bieber, and odds should be exploited when they treat him as such.
Pick: San Francisco +1.5 (+115). Low confidence.
Milwaukee @ Minnesota
Christian Yelich is back above average in the wRC+ department, and over the month of August, he’s been dominant at the plate, posting a .418 OBP while slugging .667.
It was fun while it lasted, NL Central.
Pick: Milwaukee +1.5 (-140). Low confidence.
