Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,503 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
John Means is certainly overperforming expectations, and his ERA’s a phenomenal 3.21. But with his 4.07 xERA and a 4.70 FIP (driven by a .223 BABIP and an 88.7% LOB rate), there’s cause to be suspicious.
Across the bullpen pregame will be Drew Rasmussen, a guy the Brewers included in the Willy Adames trade. He’s only thrown 43 innings, but he’s got a 3.34 FIP and 3.68 xERA, and his last time out he held the Red Sox to one run over four innings while striking out four and walking two.
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Pittsburgh @ Los Angeles
Speaking of guys once traded for Willy Adames, David Price is much the same pitcher numbers-wise that he was over his last few years in Boston, just in a significantly different role. No longer the man who threw nearly 700 combined innings from 2014 through 2016, he’s still right around 4.00 in xERA and FIP, and now stretched out enough to work past the second time through the order, he’s a candidate for the Dodgers’ postseason rotation, should they need one.
Pick: Los Angeles -1.5 (-155). Low confidence.
