Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,657 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: Single-game MLB bets.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 123–109–3 so far this year, down 10.72 units. We’re trying three new approaches, something we started on Thursday. So far, that effort is 9–6, up 1.95 units. That return isn’t good enough to hold up such a small sample.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
New York (AL) @ Chicago (AL)
We lost our first Heat Index bet last night, and it was both infuriating and the best one we could have lost. Infuriating, because Ky Bush walked seven batters and only struck out two, yet allowed a scant two runs. The best we could have lost, because the odds were so short that the payout we missed was minimal.
Our formula still likes the Yankees tonight. Because it goes off of wRC+ and FIP–, it didn’t react as strongly to last night’s result as it would have to a normal 10-run margin. The payout’s still low on this, but it’s thankfully not as low as yesterday’s.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –272. Low confidence. (Cortes and Cannon must start.)
Atlanta @ San Francisco
Our bets on the smallest favorite each day are 4–1, and we should not and do not expect them to continue at that pace. But, we’re encouraged that we may have found a shred of value, and we only need a shred. If this goes like last night’s game did, we’ll at least get to enjoy some tension in the late innings.
Pick: San Francisco to win –107. Low confidence. (Morton and Harrison must start.)
Houston @ Tampa Bay
Our underdog bets are struggling, but all four losses have been close, and it’s the kind of thing where one that hits makes a big difference. So, we continue with that approach. If the losing continues at this rate, we’ll flip and start fading these choices. If it settles into only a moderately unprofitable average return, we’ll nix it and stick with only the things that are working. The one we won was a Shane Baz start, for what little that’s worth.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +121. Low confidence. (Kikuchi and Baz must start.)
World Series
It’s a high-leverage time of year, and that was a big one last night for the Braves. Any space in the Wild Card picture, even half a game, is immensely valuable. The markets were already a little low on Atlanta—who has Max Fried in addition to the NL Cy Young favorite—but the value on this really jumped today.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1800. Medium confidence.
NL East
Meanwhile, the Phillies look vulnerable, and our portfolio is set to take one right in the kisser if the Braves come back and win the NL East. With value available, then, we’ll lighten that risk.
Pick: Atlanta to win +900. Medium confidence.
