Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 431 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Baltimore @ New York (AL)
Domingo Germán has a mighty 15-2 record, tying him with Justin Verlander for the MLB lead in wins and giving him a larger win-loss gap than any other pitcher by magnitude.
Yet Germán’s ERA is only 4.05 (45th among the 96 pitchers with 100+ innings on the year), and his FIP is a concerning 4.59 (68th among the same 96 pitchers). Germán’s teammates don’t measure up much better: Masahiro Tanaka has an ERA/FIP of 4.64/4.42. James Paxton’s is 4.40/4.37. J.A. Happ’s is a woeful 5.48/5.68, and CC Sabathia comes in at 4.78/5.92.
Luis Severino is slowly coming back from a shoulder injury, giving the impression that the Yankees will, if all goes according to plan, have a least one good starting pitcher when the ALDS rolls around. But with Germán, Paxton, and Tanaka behind him, and their relief pitchers posting a collective 4.08 FIP (3.95 ERA), it’s a safe bet that the braintrust in the Bronx is weighing the viability of bullpen games in October.
Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (+150). Low confidence.
Seattle @ Detroit
Yusei Kikuchi has the worst FIP of any qualified pitcher, at 5.88, and the fourth-worst ERA, at 5.34. He was an exciting acquisition for Seattle this offseason, coming over from Japan, but he has yet to produce results anywhere close to what the Mariners or anyone else expected.
One of the biggest problems for Kikuchi has been home runs. He’s allowed 29 of them—tied for the second-most in baseball. And while Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander has allowed the same number, Verlander has struck out 217 batters to Kikuchi’s meager 92. Kikuchi’s strikeout rate (16.9%) is in the 12th percentile of Statcast’s sample, and he’s not exactly inducing weak contact, with an xwOBA in the poorest quartile.
Tonight, Kikuchi faces the Tigers, with the second-lowest home run total in the league. But the wind’s blowing out at Comerica Park, and the last time Kikuchi faced Detroit, he managed to allow two of their 108 season-to-date home runs.
Not what the Mariners would like to see.
Pick: Over 9 (+105). Low confidence.
Boston @ Cleveland
For all of the problems in Boston this season, and despite his own 4.41 ERA, Chirs Sale has managed a 3.35 FIP. It’s his worst since 2016, and the second-worst of his career, but it’s still 13th among qualified pitchers.
It’s not unusual for Sale, or anybody, to underperform their FIP. Over his career, Sale’s FIP outpaces his ERA by 0.12. But that gap is a long way from the 1.06 he’s dealing with this year.
Sale’s average exit velocity is up this season to its highest in the Statcast era, and his .213 XBA isn’t too different from the actual average opponents have managed against him, a .220 mark. Instead, it seems timing is Sale’s issue, with his 67.3% LOB rate over one thousand basis points worse than his career average of 77.5%.
Chris Sale is having a bad year. He’s still Chris Sale, though.
Pick: Under 8 (-115). Low confidence.
