Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 958 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Zack Wheeler’s turned in two very good starts so far, but he’s left a slightly unsustainable portion of runners on base. Consider his low-4’s FIP projection to still stand, and have some faith in the Phillies’ bats.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Cleveland
Adam Plutko has burned this blog time and time again. Yet we can’t stay away.
Pick: Chicago (NL) -1.5 (+135). Low confidence.
Oakland @ Anaheim
I haven’t compared the distribution of Mike Fiers’s game scores to the league average, so I can’t say that he’s as boom-or-bust as he might seem. What I can say his that his ERA projects to land around 5.00 in a pitcher-friendly environment, and when looking at totals, projections are a good tool to use.
Pick: Over 9 (-110). Low confidence.
