Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,811 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’ve got two MLB futures and one MLB pick. For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
ALCS
It’s easy to make too much of early season results. We hear this all the time, and it’s entirely true. At the same time, though, four straight wins will make a difference no matter when in the season they come, and the fact of the matter is that the Rays and Twins have put themselves in good respective positions. Each is favored to make the playoffs right now in FanGraphs’s projections, and they’re flashing a lot of positive value at these prices. We’ll gladly add them to our mix.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1600. Medium confidence.
Atlanta @ St. Louis
We really like Steven Matz to bounce back this year, with his xERA and FIP strong last season even with injuries surrounding him. Evidently the market likes that as well, though, and with Dylan Dodd highly promising as a competent starter—the word on him is that he has excellent command—we’ll take Atlanta to get another win on the road tonight.
Pick: Atlanta to win +122. Low confidence. (Dodd and Matz must start.)
