Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,114 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: College basketball and Major League Baseball, in futures markets and on single games.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 143–117–2 and we’re down 13.96 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss. We’re on a very cold streak. We went 2–8 on the Sweet Sixteen and the Elite Eight.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week (lost about five percent of the portfolio), and we then rallied (making half of that back), and then we were about to be in a great spot heading into this week but Duke lost, sending us to a projected eROI, right now, of –14% based on our model’s probabilities. We will try to claw some of that back, but such pursuits are accompanied by risk.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 3–2 so far, up 0.29 units.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We’re beginning this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We plan to place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays.
Indiana State vs. Utah
We can see strong cases everywhere here, but at the end of the day, we think both these offenses are good and both these teams are best served by trying to outgun the other.
Pick: Over 162 (–110). Low confidence.
Seton Hall vs. Georgia
Georgia will absolutely be ready to play, but we like Seton Hall’s veteran presence here, and we think they’ll have more of a comfort level at Hinkle Fieldhouse, where no one on their current roster has ever lost while playing for Seton Hall (and possibly ever).
Pick: Seton Hall –4.5 (–110). Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
We like the value on Purdue a lot, especially in the championship market. We have a ton of upside on Alabama, and they remain our primary out, but we’re going to work towards making Purdue an out as well. The second of these is just the Purdue moneyline for Saturday, but we see value there as well. We really don’t think NC State is going to push this another round. But! We have thought that every round so far.
Pick: Purdue to win tournament +210. Low confidence. x5
Pick: Purdue to make championship –425. Low confidence. x12
NIT
The value here changes depending how you view Indiana State’s home-crowd advantage, but we’re giving them at least a bit of it, and that makes this make sense for us, especially with our preexisting upside on Utah. Four units on the Sycamores. We’ll profit on the NIT market if the winner of Indiana State/Utah wins on Thursday.
Pick: Indiana State to win +160. Low confidence. x4
Minnesota @ Milwaukee
As pitchers get through their first starts and into their second, our approach of consulting FanGraphs on value and then dodging red flags encounters a lot more red flags. We start seeing pitchers who’ve underperformed or overperformed their projections to a meaningful extent. Sometimes, we deal with this, because the sample is small, but it’s dangerous to bet against overperformers or to bet on underperformers. It’s sometimes smart, but we’ve found dodging it helps.
Anyway, first starts of the year for these starters, so no red flags from that. Off day yesterday and no outlandish bullpen usage on Sunday, so no red flags there. Lineups are in, so nothing meaningful left to find its way to the FanGraphs probabilities. There’s a hint of value on the Twins at this price. We’ll take the hint.
Pick: Minnesota to win +105. Low confidence. (Varland and Junis must start.)
AL East
The Orioles might outperform their numerical projections again. That’s a possibility. The Rays are probably undervalued, and the Red Sox and Jays are still potent. But the Orioles are taking up so much oxygen in the market that the Yankees are valuable here. We’ll happily take a roster this good.
Pick: New York to win +160. Medium confidence.
ALCS
Imagine, for a second, that Shane Bieber pitches most of the season like he did on Opening Day. Imagine a strong version of Shane Bieber. Will the Guardians not win the Central? Is that not what such a season would imply, in the context of a division as tightly packed as this one? The division title is still valuable, even if the AL Central champ tends to do poorly in October. 35-to-1 is a long, long price.
Pick: Cleveland to win +3500. Medium confidence.
