Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 145 completed bets (there are outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
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Tonight’s slate isn’t loaded, but with four college basketball games (the CIT’s semifinals are tonight, alongside the NIT Final Four) and a healthy serving of baseball, there are some favorable lines. As always, you should get a KenPom subscription, you should check out ESPN’s BPI, and you should spend time on Fangraphs. Also as always, lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this.
Here we go:
NIT Final Four: Lipscomb vs. Wichita State
Wichita State continues to raise its performance, improving so quickly it’s hard to know whether ratings systems are capturing how differently the Shockers are playing today from how they were playing two months ago.
In each of the last five games, though, Wichita State’s relied on pulling down at least nine offensive rebounds. This isn’t an outrageously high total, but it’s significant as a minimum, and it’s come against opponents who, with the exception of Clemson, all counted defensive rebounding as a weakness.
Lipscomb counts it as no such weakness, and Lipscomb, unlike Clemson, has a potent offense.
Yes, Wichita State should give the Bisons’ offense a lot of trouble. But Lipscomb is a better team than to be only a one-point favorite.
Pick: Lipscomb -1 (-110). Low confidence.
NIT Final Four: TCU vs. Texas
In Texas and TCU’s first two matchups, they combined for 126 and 125 points. While Texas does like to slow things down, this was an aberration for both teams, and looks likely to be more a function of a small sample than something worth much stock.
Still, oddsmakers either think it noteworthy or have another reason for pegging the total below where I’d expect it.
We’ll see.
Pick: Over 137.5 (-110). Low confidence.
CIT Semifinal: Hampton @ Marshall
Marshall gets their third home game of the CIT tonight, and they’ve got an opponent willing to run with them. The total is in the 170’s, and that sounds about right. It should be a fun game. While a Hampton outright victory isn’t all that likely, Marshall’s poor rebounding could bite them tonight.
Pick: Hampton +6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
MLB: Milwaukee @ Cincinnati
The NL Central is looking poised for a tight year, and while the Reds aren’t expected to be one of the division’s final contenders, their relevance isn’t out of the question.
With the game in Cincinnati, fairly reputable starter Anthony DeSclafani on the mound for the home team, and Josh Hader likely to stay on the bench for the visitors, the Reds might be the favorite in tonight’s specific contest. Instead, they’re a slight underdog.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +105. Low confidence.
MLB: Houston @ Texas
Shelby Miller makes his season debut tonight for Texas, having made only eight major league starts over the past two regular seasons.
He faces Justin Verlander, who made 67 starts over the past two regular seasons.
Still, Miller’s chance at a resurgence is high enough, and the odds against the Rangers are strong enough, and the game is in Arlington enough to warrant taking a flier on Texas.
Pick: Texas to win +190. Low confidence.
MLB: Colorado @ Tampa Bay
Kyle Freeland is likely due for some regression, judging by the gap between his ERA and FIP in 2018.
The same goes for Blake Snell.
Still, both are very good pitchers, and it’s not hard to envision a great game tonight at Tropicana Field.
I’m not sure if projected pitchers duels are more centralized around a tossup than high-scoring games (though it stands to reason that the fewer runs that are scored, the higher the impact may be of a few individual, highly random events). Either way, this line isn’t giving Freeland and the Rockies enough credit.
Pick: Colorado to win +155. Low confidence.
