Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,372 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
Even down a couple guys, this line underestimates the Royals. Add in that Jakob Junis has been pitching well so far on the year (albeit with a good deal of contact luck) and there’s reason for confidence.
It’s tempting to talk about questions like “are they for real?” as though they’re binary when it comes to teams like the Royals and the Pirates, each of whom has a better record than expected as we approach the end of the season’s first month. The answer is more nuanced than that. No, neither should be expected to sustain their current pace, but the Pirates are the worse of the two—as is that current pace of theirs. The Royals are expected to be the better team and have played like it so far. It appears there might be some overthinking happening in the market.
Pick: Kansas City to win -104. Low confidence.
Boston @ New York (NL)
Garrett Richards has yet to put it together for Boston. He’s walking nearly a batter an inning. Boston’s offense is good enough, though, to make up for a lot of that. You don’t need Richards to turn in a quality start for this to have value.
Pick: Boston to win +130. Low confidence.
Seattle @ Houston
Marco Gonzales has had two dreadful starts, a serviceable outing, and a seven-inning gem in which he struck out six Dodgers, walked one, and held that lineup to one run on two hits. Which half of his performances is more indicative of Gonzales’s true self?
Neither, really. Like we were saying with the Royals and Pirates, this isn’t binary. Our best expectation of Marco Gonzales’s performance is based off those four starts and the whole of his career, his performance in recent seasons, his age, etc. All of that, taken together, points towards a still-solid pitcher. The Mariners are deservedly big-time underdogs tonight. But Gonzales is probably fine.
Pick: Seattle to win +170. Low confidence.
