Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,804 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
More MLB futures today, as we rise to 60 of 520 units invested (with 520 more units in reserve, waiting for October or September hedging).
ALCS
This is only narrowly a profitable scenario for us, which means we’ll likely be looking to put more on the Blue Jays in short order if the value’s there, but the value’s here right now, so we’ll at least start. This gives us the Blue Jays, Astros, Yankees, and Angels as profitable American League Pennant options, and it’s nearly more likely than not that all four of those will make the playoff field.
Pick: Toronto to win +375. Medium confidence.
NLCS
Our National League situation is much more formative, with this only our second NLCS play. The reason for this is that the NL, as a whole, is undervalued in World Series markets, making the LCS side the open side for a lot of NL teams whereas AL teams—like the Blue Jays—received their first World Series attention from us a while ago. Anyway, the Padres remain a fairly solid bet to grab a Wild Card spot, which in turn sets them up well to get to a 1-in-8 shot, if not better, at some point late in the year. The value’s here.
Pick: San Diego to win +1000. Medium confidence.
