Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 171 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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Four picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Fangraphs is great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the games.
Atlanta @ Cincinnati
Sonny Gray and Kevin Gausman were each traded to their current teams within the last twelve months.
Early returns on both have been positive.
Gausman started ten games for the Braves down the stretch last year, posting a 2.87 ERA while lasting nearly six innings per outing. He’s performing comparably so far this year, with a 2.75 ERA through three starts. Best of all, his FIP since coming to Atlanta is a comfortable 3.61, meaning whatever regression comes his way shouldn’t be too disappointing.
Gray’s tenure with his current team is younger, but comparably successful. While he’s lacked run support (his record sits at 0-3), and he’s had a couple stunted outings (he lasted only two and two-thirds innings in his debut), his ERA sits at 2.79 and his FIP (2.58) indicates he actually might be the slightest bit unlucky so far, an encouraging indicator for a Reds team who made surprising moves towards competition in the offseason, only to wilt out of the gate.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +100. Low confidence.
Arizona @ Pittsburgh
The season is not yet a month old, with division standings only just beginning to stratify, but the Pirates are hanging on atop the National League Central.
Their pitching staff as a whole deserves the lion’s share of credit for this, but special applause goes to the starting rotation. Through 20 games, the Pirates’ starting five leads the league in quality starts with 14 (tied with the Astros, who have played 22 games), protecting the vulnerable middle of the bullpen while allowing Felipe Vazquez to close the door again and again.
In Arizona, times aren’t as optimistic, but that’s more a function of the Diamondbacks’ geographic proximity to the Dodgers than an indictment upon them as a ballclub.
Starting tonight for the Snakes is Luke Weaver, part of Arizona’s return from St. Louis in the Paul Goldschmidt deal. In what figures to be his first major league season, Weaver is off to a strong start, recording nearly five times as many strikeouts as he’s allowed walks (the league average is about half that).
Pick: Pittsburgh to win -110. Low confidence.
Washington @ Colorado
Newly extremely well-paid pitcher Patrick Corbin is off to a strong start in his campaign to justify the Nationals’ investment in him, having already tossed nearly 27 innings of 2.36-ERA ball in four starts.
He does appear due for some regression (his FIP sits at 3.25), but even with that regression, last year’s Cy Young contention might become more of an expectation for the 29 year-old than an aberration going forward.
Opposing him tonight in Denver is up-again down-again pitcher Jeff Hoffman, who makes his season debut for the Rockies. Hoffman has only 23 career starts to his name, with the majority of those coming in 2017, and despite his status as a former top ten pick by the Blue Jays (he came over in the Troy Tulowitzki trade), he likely needs to turn things positive in a hurry if he wants to add many more to that total.
Pick: Washington to win -125. Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Anaheim
Aaron Judge went on the IL on Sunday, bringing the total number of injured Yankees to 14 (12 on the IL, plus Clint Frazier and Logan Morrison, who are both listed by Fangraphs as day-to-day).
Still, the Yankees sit close to the Astros, Rangers, and Indians on the edge of the AL’s top five records, and the Rays aren’t far out of reach within the division.
Responsibility for this mainly belongs to James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Judge, and Frazier, but tonight’s starter, Domingo German, has contributed as well. Through three starts and one relief appearance, he’s struck out 23 and only allowed six runs. Now, some of his success can be attributed to an advantageous schedule (his starts have come against the Royals, Orioles, and Tigers), but the numbers are good, and the Yankees organization is undoubtedly thankful for that.
Meanwhile, in Orange County, Mike Trout has struggled since returning from a groin injury, posting only a .436 OBP to drag down his 2019 OBP to .523.
*moment of astonishment*
If the Yankees keep Mike Trout off the bases tonight, they’ll be the first team to do it all year.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -105. Low confidence.
