Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,788 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’re onto our fifth day of MLB futures. If you’re new to this, what we’re doing is investing 520 units over the course of the regular season (with 520 more units in reserve for hedging and the postseason) in an effort to get our all-time results back to a positive average return. We have our strongest history in MLB futures, hitting on a lot of Nationals picks in 2019 and plays across the board last year, with only a small loss in 2020. Currently, our focus is on breadth—we’re taking the highest-value plays each day on teams we haven’t yet bet on. At some point, possibly tomorrow, we’ll have to switch to going deeper on individual teams, but for now, we’re minimizing holes while still getting some value.
AL Central
This is our third AL Central team, joining the Twins from last week and the Royals from yesterday. We’re fading the White Sox here, but we’re also fading the Tigers. The market is high on the Tigers, and while they could certainly do it—they’re young, they’ve got a few stars—as we’ve said before, this probably just isn’t the year yet. It’s likely not the year yet for the Guardians either, but with double the division title probability and twice as long of odds as their neighbors around the lake, we’ll gladly take a flier.
Pick: Cleveland to win +1400. Medium confidence.
AL East
The Blue Jays are quite possibly the best team in baseball, and while the East is probably too good to be run away with, if anyone’s going to run away with it, it’s probably Toronto. Get them while they’re here (this would be one of our first moves for doubling down, were we at that point, meaning it may be a Blue Jays-heavy week).
Pick: Toronto to win +150. Medium confidence.
