Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,818 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
A lot going on today between MLB futures, our daily MLB play, and the start of NBA playoff futures betting at The Barking Crow, which is an entirely new market for us. Here’s what to know before the picks:
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 8–4, we’re up 3.55 units, we’re up 30% (the average line on our winners has been -106). That 30% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice couple weeks.
For the NBA future: We’re beginning the playoffs with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
NL West
This, importantly, does not yet make the Padres a profitable scenario for us in the NL West. The payout’s only 2.4 units, and we have four units combined down on the Giants and Diamondbacks to win this division. In other words: Watch this space.
Also: I’m still not sure why the Padres aren’t the division favorite. There seems to be a lot of weight placed on the premise that the Dodgers will get a lot better and/or that the Padres will implode. The assumptions necessary to lean so heavily into such a premise are each a stretch. Are we exposed to some risk by fading the Dodgers so hard here? Yes. But it’s also only April 11th, and our goal isn’t to profit on the NL West. Our goal is to profit, period, with a secondary goal of profiting over the regular season, which means profiting on all divisions taken as a whole. We could whiff on the NL West and still profit if, say, the AL East picks us up. Which brings us to…
Pick: San Diego to win +120. Medium confidence.
AL East
As we said a few days ago: The important thing about a hot start isn’t necessarily how indicative it is of a team’s ability. The important thing is that it banks a bunch of wins. The number of wins necessary to win the AL East is, conservatively, somewhere around 95. To hit that, the Rays only need to go 85–67. That’s still a 91-win pace from here out, but that’s a lot more attainable than a 95-win pace.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +170. Medium confidence.
Boston @ Tampa Bay
We lost last night’s single-game pick, breaking a seven-game win streak. I doubted the Phillies’ bullpen readiness, I pivoted to the Royals, and the Phillies looked at Sandy Alcantara and decided they didn’t need no bullpen. That’s baseball. The trend is still positive, and we’ll try to add to its positivity tonight.
Our five options today—using our proprietary Tuesday approach which we don’t want to say out loud combined with our honing mechanism which we also don’t want to spell out too clearly—are the Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Rockies, and Nationals. We would like to avoid betting a big underdog after losing our last pick, because part of our motivation is stoking a regular following of these, so we’re going to start by looking at the Rays and the Rangers.
At the starting pitching level, both the Rays and Rangers pass the test. Not only are Shane McClanahan and Jacob deGrom among the game’s best pitchers, but their early-season FIPs and xERAs are good, giving us no reason for suspicion that they’re “off” right now in any way. deGrom is especially appetizing because of his bad early-season ERA, something that’s capable of pushing a market off his scent. Neither opposing pitcher looks particularly scary—Jordan Lyles is fine, Garrett Whitlock was an effective swingman last year but isn’t reasonably expected to be excellent.
In the bullpen, I’d expect all the Rays’ key guys to be available, unless Pete Fairbanks isn’t allowed to throw on back-to-back days even if the outing’s only 10 pitches and comes after five full days of rest (which might be reasonable, depending on his numbers on no rest). The Rangers, meanwhile, should be without Brock Burke, who entered with a three-run lead last night and then stayed in for the seventh after the Rangers stretched that to a ten-run margin. Burke is good, so his absence (or at least fatigue) matters. Combine this with our realization that Chris Martin’s thrown on back-to-back days for the Red Sox, and we’re picking the Rays to stretch the win streak to eleven. We’re a little worried Whitlock will get scratched and push this, being a swingman and therefore more susceptible to a late opener announcement, but we’re two hours from first pitch and he’s on the lineup card. It’s a risk we’ll take.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win -165. Low confidence. (McClanahan and Whitlock must start.)
Western Conference
When we use FiveThirtyEight for futures, we like to avoid odds longer than 10-to-1 or so. We don’t like them as much in that low probability space as we like FanGraphs or our own modeling. Today, with markets having had time to settle since seeds were set this weekend, we’re also ignoring options not affected by tonight’s games. From there, we’re just looking for the best eROI available, and while FiveThirtyEight loves the Grizzlies, it appears to have Steven Adams returning to full health by this weekend, which isn’t happening. That leaves us here, where the Nuggets pass every one of our qualifications and also pass the smell test, appearing like a team that could be undervalued by the market because of their recent inability to get over the hump. If the Lakers beat the Timberwolves, Denver gets an added boost by virtue of sitting across from LeBron & Co. in the Western Conference bracket.
In other words? Nothing to dislike. Not a bad start to the portfolio foundation.
Pick: Denver to win +375. Low confidence.
