CFP spread picks ahead. Movelor’s 3–2 so far, at least against where we got the line. (Not sure where last night’s closed.)
We’re not doing any futures still, and that’s mostly a time thing. As in: We didn’t leave ourselves enough time. Good start to 2026 on that front.
Texas Tech vs. Oregon
Movelor likes Texas Tech here. How do we feel about that?
Honestly, fine. The Big 12 champion was undervalued in last year’s playoff, and for all Oregon’s potential, we haven’t seen them do a whole lot this season. We like this Oregon team and think highly of that potential, but Tech’s done it, and it’s worth looking at what teams have done.
Pick: Texas Tech +1 (–110). 15.35 units to win 13.95.
Indiana vs. Alabama
The same is true here. Alabama’s potential is holding this line back. But the possibility of Alabama fully figuring it out is a fringe possibility. It hasn’t happened yet under Kalen DeBoer. At some point, that becomes the reasonable expectation going forward.
Pick: Indiana –7 (–110). 15.35 units to win 13.95.
Georgia vs. Mississippi
We don’t like this one, because Georgia was so clearly better than Mississippi when they previously played. But the switch from Lane Kiffin to Pete Golding does introduce some variability, and to be fair, that matchup was a long time ago. Going back to results, Mississippi’s playing almost as well as anyone in the SEC right now. And by “anyone in the SEC,” we of course mean Georgia.
Pick: Mississippi +6.5 (–108). 15.07 units to win 13.95.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –497.88 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,016 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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