I will confess to briefly believing that Lipscomb was going to make enough final-minute free throws last night to cover a 9.5-point spread in overtime. Alas. I think that makes us 1–1 in conference tournament action.
More of that today.
High Point vs. Gardner-Webb
This is last-minute, but this line is really far from kenpom (4.5 points), it’s slid further in just the last half hour, and I don’t really know why? Last year, I’m pretty sure the Big South Tournament was at High Point. This year, it’s in Johnson City at a neutral site. Gardner-Webb played a conference tournament game already, but they had a day of rest. I’m not seeing anything about injuries for them. Is the market riding the favorite because they’re favored? We’ll take the risk and bet that that’s the case.
Pick: Gardner-Webb +15.5 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
Dayton at VCU
Dayton can be as ugly as anybody, but generally, they score points, and they have the talent to compete with the best in the A-10, which is VCU. VCU, meanwhile, isn’t scoring at the rate they did in January, but they’ve been putting up respectable numbers. Unless we’re missing a big injury, we just don’t see anything that should pull this so far from the fundamentals (i.e., kenpom).
Pick: Over 140.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –62.18 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 122 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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