Last night’s pivot worked. Back, though, to something similar to what we’d been doing. It’s a thin slate tonight.
Rutgers at Michigan State
The market doesn’t like Michigan State as much as kenpom does, and the market likes the over a little bit more. What that would seem to signify is an expectation that Michigan State will loosen up with the game in hand. Is that what they do? I’m not going to pretend to know, but we’ll take the chance.
Pick: Over 141.5 (–110). 4.72 units to win 4.29.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –566.93 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,092 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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