Yesterday, we wrote with hope about how the absence of college basketball games might lead us to a profitable day. Alas. The Nationals couldn’t spring the upset. Maybe the return of college basketball games will lead us to a profitable night tonight. First, though, today’s MLB futures.
AL West
Maybe there’s something where home-field advantage won’t be as big at these minor-league parks. More likely, that’s coming out in the wash, FanGraphs is right, and there’s at least some value here. That’s all we’re trying to do in these early stages of the portfolio: Amass a diverse collection of value.
Pick: Sacramento to win +2800. 2.00 units to win 56.00.
AL East
Ditto what we just said.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1000. 2.00 units to win 20.00.
Arizona at New York (AL)
I’m shocked that there’s value available on the Yankees here, but evidently the Corbin Burnes expectations are that high. I would say “damn the torpedoes,” but that’s the opposite of what we’re thinking here.
This might be a slight deviation from process. We didn’t check other games once we saw FanGraphs flashing value here, and we didn’t look into injuries or weather like we normally would. So, take it with that grain of salt. Clearly, we aren’t that confident in our process.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +108. 15.00 units to win 16.20. (Burnes and Warren must start.)
UC Irvine vs. North Texas
Given our existing future on UC Irvine, we aren’t going to bet the spread here. Kenpom favors the under and at this point, we trust it. We don’t think anything that different would go on at this level of the NIT.
Pick: Under 128 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Loyola Chicago vs. Chattanooga
Similar situation here, except Chattanooga’s the futures interest and Kenpom favors the over.
Pick: Over 146 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
NCAA Tournament
We’ll take Houston again in this market, where we’ll now profit if either Houston or Auburn wins on Monday. (We have more units pending on the NIT market, where we’ll profit with a Chattanooga or UC Irvine win on Thursday.)
Pick: Houston to win +450. 1.00 unit to win 4.50.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –289.96 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –9% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 240 single-game markets plus one half-completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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