We stopped the losing streak yesterday, but we only split, and while splitting was supposed to be an acceptable outcome for our over/underdog approach, that was because we still had football left to make us money. With football over, we’re entering a bleak stretch for ourselves historically. We can project a decent NIT bracket at this site, but betting college basketball has been difficult since about 2020, for us and for others. For better or worse, the only way out is through. We’re a month and a half from reuniting with another sweet spot, Major League Baseball. A month and a half is a long time. We need to try to win on college basketball, difficult though that may be. So, on at least Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays, we’re going to de-couple our two bets per day. Here goes.
Indiana @ Michigan State
Kenpom has the line at eleven here, and I’m surprised the market hasn’t moved farther from that mark. Indiana’s lost five straight and seven of eight. Mike Woodson—never a master motivator—is officially a lame duck. Michigan State’s shown itself capable this year of blowing teams out.
If Sparty wins this, Tom Izzo will become the Big Ten’s all-time wins leader. Are fears of nerves causing some reluctance to pile on MSU? Are bettors worried about the illness which kept a few Spartans off the court on Saturday?
Overall, this line sits in between kenpom and where we’d expect it to be. If it was further towards Indiana, we’d ask if the market was seeing something. Here, though, we think it’s just making too little of what’s in front of it. We’ll take MSU to make this a party.
Pick: Michigan State –11.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Alabama @ Texas
Kenpom has this total at 164 on 73 possessions. Alabama’s been over 73 possessions in all but two of its SEC games. Texas is one of the slower SEC teams, but they’re not the slowest. A lot of that number is coming from nonconference play, and while nonconference is predictive, I do think this is one where Alabama will be able to control the pace of the game. Couple that with defensively challenged Texas guards, and we should get a fun track meet tonight in Austin.
Pick: Over 166 (–113). 10.00 units to win 8.85.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –109.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 68 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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