Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,402 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks against the spread. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
MLB futures today and our first ever NFL bets—also in the futures market, as you might guess. For unit context: We began the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio (20 per week, 4 per weekday), plus an extra 520 in reserve for hedges. We begin the season with 50 units in our NFL futures portfolio (2 per week, once a week) plus an extra 50 in reserve for hedges.
Super Bowl
The Packers have the back-to-back MVP, they’re arguably the biggest division favorite in the NFL, and the odds on them are double the odds on the Bills. This seems valuable.
Pick: Green Bay to win +1200. Low confidence.
AFC
The Bengals definitely felt like a fluky conference champion last year, but they did win the conference, and their outlook for this year is comparable. We’ll pocket this one.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +1200. Low confidence.
ALCS
More of the same on the MLB front, where the Blue Jays got out of Baltimore with three wins in four games, leaving them with a five-game lead in the loss column and only 26 games left to play. They’re going to the playoffs, and once there, that lineup is going to put the fear of God into whoever draws them in their first round.
Pick: Toronto to win +900. Medium confidence.
NLCS
Across the league divide, the Padres’ own hold on a playoff spot looks firm, albeit uncertain. They’re three losses ahead of the Brewers, they’re percentage points behind the Phillies, and they have to play the Dodgers six more times, starting with three this weekend. That isn’t a great setup, but all six of those Dodgers meetings are at home, three losses is a lot, and sitting adjacent to Philadelphia gives them a second “out,” even if it’s less probable than the Brewers just missing the cut. We’ll take advantage of the uncertainty and grab these odds, which should shorten up considerably as they approach clinching a spot.
Pick: San Diego to win +1400. Medium confidence.
