Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,742 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines, college football futures, NFL futures, and a pick for the NFL season opener. We’re taking the day off of MLB futures—it’s our last weekday off of the regular season.
Here’s our history on each active market, and how we’re approaching them:
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 161–134–3 so far this year, down 3.60 units. Over the last four weeks, we’ve been trying a different collection of approaches. So far, that effort is 49–32, up 9.20 units. We’re still open to changing those approaches, but what we’ve found works best for us is picking Heat Index’s top two choices every day. Heat Index is our pet metric measuring how hot and cold teams are. Together, Heat Index’s top two choices are 33–8 in our sample, up 16.15 units.
College football futures: Our history here is decent. We’ve generally made small profits, but only small ones, and last year got admittedly dicey (we eventually broke even by piling on South Dakota State and Michigan in their respective national championship games). This year, we’re doing two separate futures funds: The first is our normal one for team futures. It’s 150 units large, and we’re investing five units per week. The second is a new one to bet the Heisman market. It’s 100 units large, but we’ll bet a variable number of units per week. This Heisman thing is new. We’ve done it privately, but we’ve never published.
NFL futures: Our history’s ok with these. We’re slightly profitable all-time, but we’ve only done them for two years and we only profited in one of the two. Our portfolio is 200 units large. To leave a cushion for hedging and arbitrage purposes, we’ll be investing roughly six units per week.
NFL single-game bets: We did so badly at these last year. First time publishing them, and it went horribly. Be warned.
Colorado @ Atlanta
Atlanta’s the second-hottest team in the game. Colorado is the coldest team in the game. Heat Index can’t get enough.
Pick: Atlanta to win –272. Low confidence. (Gomber and López must start.)
Philadelphia @ Miami
Elsewhere in the NL East, the Marlins are spectacularly cold, and while Ranger Suárez has been shakier lately and Adam Oller’s coming off two great starts, we don’t trust Oller. Not that we tell Heat Index any of that anyway.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –217. Low confidence. (Suárez and Oller must start.)
College Football Playoff
We’ll get a tracker for these futures and the NFL futures up soon, but for now, here’s the list of plays we’ve made so far:
| Date | Team | Pick | Units | Odds |
| 8/29/24 | Michigan | Make CFP | 1 | 150 |
| 8/29/24 | Kansas State | Make CFP | 1 | 275 |
| 8/29/24 | Georgia Tech | Make CFP | 1 | 3300 |
| 8/29/24 | Notre Dame | Win Nat’l Champ | 1 | 2200 |
| 8/29/24 | Clemson | Win Nat’l Champ | 1 | 5000 |
We’re going back to Michigan today. This Texas game is likely to be the extinguishing force upon any smoldering thinking that Michigan still might be the best team in the country, but at the same time…Michigan might win this. Even if they don’t, the possibility they’re one of the three or four best teams in the Big Ten is high. That’s very possibly all they’ll have to be to make the 12-team field.
We’re putting two on Alabama, bringing them to two total units as well. The talent is certainly there, and Kalen DeBoer can certainly coach. The more I reflect on the situation in Tuscaloosa, the more I realize the concerns should maybe be more for the long term there than the short term. DeBoer inherited a good situation. From one angle, you could call this one of his easier upcoming years.
We were very impressed with Oklahoma State against South Dakota State, and with these “make the playoff” bets effectively conference futures for Big 12 and ACC schools, with a little backdoor at-large possibility thrown in (our model has the median combined number of Big 12 and ACC playoff teams at three), this is a solid price on one of three legitimate Big 12 favorites.
Last, we don’t love the price on Penn State to make the playoff, as others have seen their schedule as well, but we think the market’s underrating how much more like other sports’ postseasons college football’s is about to be. In the 4-team playoff, the best team almost always won. That is less likely in the 12-team field. Getting in there is a big deal, and Penn State’s bye chances are likely underrated thanks to the same inflated Oregon, Ohio State, and USC expectations which make Michigan’s price so appealing.
Pick: Alabama to make College Football Playoff –135. Low confidence. x2
Pick: Michigan to make College Football Playoff +210. Low confidence.
Pick: Oklahoma State to make College Football Playoff +650. Low confidence.
Pick: Penn State to win national championship +2500. Low confidence.
Heisman Trophy
What we’ve done on the Heisman so far:
| Date | Team | Units | Odds |
| 8/29/24 | Miller Moss | 1 | 2800 |
| 8/29/24 | Drew Allar | 1 | 4000 |
It was a good week for both Moss and Allar. It wasn’t as good a week for Quinshon Judkins, who we wanted to get in on as well, as Ohio State’s best player at a skill position. It was only a game against Akron, and we’ll keep monitoring him, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to get enough touches to establish himself as a contender. So, we might have dodged a bullet when odds weren’t available on him last week.
This week, we’re in on Riley Leonard. Notre Dame is, besides Georgia, the likeliest playoff team, with a very good shot at a 12–0 regular season. With the right results elsewhere, that could lead the Irish to be ranked first overall, even if that leaves them with the 5-seed.
The question with Leonard is whether he’ll put up big enough numbers to garner the attention necessary to bring home the award. More likely than not, he doesn’t. But these odds are 40-to-1, Mike Denbrock just coached another dual-threat Heisman winner in Jayden Daniels at LSU, and there were plenty of reasons for Denbrock and Notre Dame to be conservative in College Station, ranging from the crowd noise to how little pressure Texas A&M’s offense put on the Irish to score.
It’s a longshot, but this early, that’s kind of the point. We don’t think we’re getting a good price on Cam Ward right now, or even necessarily Carson Beck.
Pick: Riley Leonard to win +4000. Low confidence.
Super Bowl
Most of our NFL futures this week are in the conference championship market, but we do like this price on the Eagles. Things really, really fell apart for them last year, and it’s possible that’ll stick. But in one sense, whether or not things fall apart is a binary outcome. Either they do or they don’t. If it was gradient, we’d think it could affect the accuracy of systems like FPI. Instead, either FPI is right and the Eagles are good or FPI is wrong and the Eagles are going to stink. If it’s the latter, we’re fine. It’s only one unit. If it’s the former, we’ll be glad we have this.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1200. Low confidence.
AFC
In the AFC, the Chiefs are sucking a lot of oxygen out of the room. Yes, they are good. They’re almost as good as the 49ers. (*ducks*) But a lot of things can go wrong, the AFC South champion still gets a home game, and the quantity of potential contenders in the AFC North is obscuring the Browns a little bit. They did pretty well last year with Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco probably wasn’t the difference-maker there, even if he did play well.
Pick: Miami to win +1600. Low confidence.
Pick: Cleveland to win +2300. Low confidence.
Pick: Jacksonville to win +3500. Low confidence.
Pick: Indianapolis to win +4400. Low confidence.
NFC
There’s less opportunity available in the NFC. Markets don’t respect the 49ers as much as they probably should, but they do respect them enough to keep there from being great value right now on the 49ers. The Seahawks are one we’re seeing sneak through. A first-year coach and one of the less respected quarterbacks in the league are hiding how good this roster is. We’re not saying they’ll make the Super Bowl, but we’re saying it’s likelier than a 1-in-36 possibility.
Pick: Seattle to win +3500. Low confidence.
Baltimore @ Kansas City
Either I’m out of date on the home-field advantage number at Arrowhead Stadium, bettors think Marquise Brown is an all-world wide receiver, or markets are implying the Ravens are better than the Chiefs? We respect NFL single-game markets immensely. They might be right. But this seems like some overthinking. We’ll risk getting outsmarted.
Pick: Kansas City –2.5 (–113). Low confidence.
