Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 498 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Five picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Chicago (AL) @ Cleveland
The White Sox are not contenders yet. They might not be next year, either. But that doesn’t mean 2019 hasn’t been a productive year.
While every team will have its ups and downs, the breakout of Tim Anderson (127 wRC+, fourth among shortstops) and the fruition of Yoan Moncada’s potential (4.3 fWAR, 25th among position players) have highlighted a climb towards relevance. Add in the fact that they’re projecting to win ten more games than last year and 2019 starts to look like a big step forward.
Pick: Chicago (AL) +1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ St. Louis
The Cardinals are on fire, and Dakota Hudson’s a big part of the reason why. Over a three-start stretch in August, he threw 18 and two thirds scoreless innings, allowing only seven hits. His 3.53 ERA is among the best in the NL. But his 5.00 FIP is among the worst.
What’s going on?
The gap’s coming from both the usual suspects: LOB% and BABIP. Hudson’s stranding runners at a 76.8% pace, 21st among the 67 qualified starters. His opponents’ BABIP is .288, 29th in that same sample. He’s getting away with walking 4.14 batters per nine innings, the fourth-worst of those 67 pitchers, and he strikes out only 6.95 per nine, better than only eight of the 67. Hudson’s .342 XWOBA isn’t bad. But it’s worse than his .329 real WOBA.
That XWOBA-WOBA gap is small enough to lessen some of the concern about Hudson regressing. But it’s still unlikely he’ll be able to keep that ERA where it is much longer.
Pick: San Francisco +1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Miami @ Pittsburgh
Who’s the best player on the Pirates this year?
The obvious answer would be Josh Bell. He’s the first to come to mind. But maybe it could be Starling Marte? Because if we’re asking this question, the answer probably isn’t what one would expect, and Marte’s been a constant in Pittsburgh for some time now.
It’s actually Bryan Reynolds, who, despite starting the year at AAA, has compiled a team-best 3.1 fWAR. Just last night, his ninth-inning single plated two to walk it off against the Marlins.
Reynolds’ .410 BABIP won’t last. But his XWOBA’s still in the MLB’s top quintile, and his XBA’s better than 95% of his fellow hitters. He might not receive many Rookie of the Year votes, but that’s a reflection of his class, not of him. The Pirates seem to have something special.
Pick: Over 9 (-110). Low confidence.
Minnesota @ Boston
Not all that much is being made of the Twins’ home run record. This is probably a combination of the Twins’ lack of notoriety softening the attention paid them and the general home run binge in baseball softening the shock value of their performance, but whatever the reasons, the lack of attention is not reasonable. This is impressive stuff.
With a month to spare, the Minnesota Twins passed the Yankees’ 2018 home run total, which was the largest for a team in MLB history. All of this in a ballpark where it’s frigid in the spring, and without a hitter in the top eight of baseball’s home run race.
To be fair, Max Kepler’s tied for ninth in the race, and Nelson Cruz is eleventh, but nonetheless, the record has come from a team effort. Eight of their hitters have 20 or more home runs (the Yankees and Astros each have only five at that threshold). Eleven are in the double digits. This offense pummels the ball, top to bottom. Opponents better hope for a cold snap come October.
Pick: Over 11.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Seattle @ Houston
The Mariners have struggled mightily this year.
Marco Gonzales has not.
For the second straight season, the lefty has topped three fWAR, clocking in entering today at 3.5. He’s on pace to narrowly miss 200 innings, and his FIP right now sits just barely below four. He’s had some bad luck—his ERA’s at 4.30, reflecting a disappointing 66.1% LOB rate—but he’s still been one of the better pitchers in the American League West. He’s under club control for a good while yet (four more years), but with Seattle this far from contention, it wouldn’t be shocking if he were traded this offseason, while his value’s high.
Keep an eye out.
Pick: Seattle +1.5 (+115). Low confidence.
