Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,564 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.2% isn’t much, but it’s positive, and you can do things with positive.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One future today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Moneyline Parlay
Same blocks as yesterday: The Padres aren’t competitive, the Diamondbacks aren’t competitive, the Red Sox are undervalued.
Boston, Los Angeles, and San Francisco to all win +215. Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
You could make a recency case for Kyle Gibson, since he’s outperformed his projections this year, but that’s something of an arbitrary sample, and you could find arbitrary samples to support cases in the other direction.
Pick: Atlanta to win -150. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Los Angeles
It’s not that Vince Velasquez will pitch particularly well. It’s that Vince Velasquez probably won’t be in the game very long.
Pick: Under 9 (-110). Low confidence.
World Series Matchup
We have nothing down on the Giants in the postseason. These odds are good enough to justify taking it (mostly because of the market’s valuation of the Red Sox). It’s marginal, but it shifts an unprofitable path to a profitable one, making it worth the low cost.
Pick: San Francisco vs. Boston +5000. Low confidence.
