Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of an even 0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,227 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.6% across 1,668 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, today’s MLB futures, picks for tonight in both college football and the NFL, and our NFL futures for the week. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 99–74–5, we’re up 16.35 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –110). Today, we try again for number 100.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 99.38 units, or 13.3%.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. With today’s plays, we’ve invested 23 units.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 3–6–4, we’re down 3.39 units, we’re down 26%. We didn’t lose a pick in Week 3, though.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 17–19, and 17–17 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 3.54 units, and down 10%. Not going great, but we’re coming off a 7–1 Week 4, and we were 7–0 against the spread.
Chicago (NL) @ Atlanta
Here’s our thought on this one:
FanGraphs is flashing positive value against these odds. FanGraphs has Javier Assad as the primary pitcher behind Marcus Stroman, the opener. FanGraphs’s Depth Charts system—the one I believe they use for these probabilities—has Assad’s projected FIP at 4.72.
Assad’s real FIP and xERA are 4.40 and 4.65, so 4.72 could be a little conservative. Even if it isn’t, Stroman isn’t a typical opener. He went three innings his last time out, and given that he’s building back from an injury, it’s possible he’ll go more. That should tilt the percentages more towards the Cubs, who will be getting more Stroman and less Assad than FanGraphs expects. What we’re betting here is that this will outweigh any bullpen rest advantage the Braves have (the Braves should have Kirby Yates unavailable, one would imagine Drew Smyly and possibly Mark Leiter Jr. are unavailable for the Cubs). It’s a tough board today. This is the best we’ve got.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +126. Low confidence. (Stroman and Smith-Shawver must start.)
World Series
The Astros played themselves to something resembling safety this week, taking that series from the Mariners. Now, they just have to match Seattle’s results or get in via one of the other two scenarios (the first would be passing the Rangers, the second would be passing the Blue Jays). Overall, they’re valuable at this price, and the one nice thing for them if they do end up the 6-seed is that they’d play the Twins in the Wild Card Series.
Across in the NL, the Brewers are still showing a lot of value. They’re well-built for October with all that pitching, and they have the luxury of setting themselves up optimally for their series’s beginning on Tuesday, a piece of flexibility their opponent in all likelihood will not enjoy.
Pick: Houston to win +1100. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +2000. Medium confidence.
Super Bowl
We like our AFC East teams here today.
FPI is obscenely high on the Dolphins, because it isn’t built to handle teams scoring 70 points in one of their three pieces of data on the year. Still, it’s believable that there’s value here. That was unprecedented.
What’s really telling, though, is how high FPI also is on the Bills. If FPI is that high on Miami, then AFC East teams should be dramatically undervalued by FPI, yet FPI is giving the Bills positive value as well.
Pick: Miami to win +900. Low confidence.
Pick: Buffalo to win +1100. Low confidence.
NFC
The Niners keep rolling, and we’ll take them. There’s less that can go wrong here than there is for the Eagles.
Pick: San Francisco to win +240. Low confidence.
AFC South
Someone has to win the AFC South, and while the Jaguars were trendy in the preseason, they haven’t looked up to the task so far. We’ll add the Colts to our Texans longshot in this market.
Pick: Indianapolis to win +275. Low confidence.
NFL Playoffs
There are enough good teams in the AFC that it’s hard to see how the Raiders put it together. They’re far from the worst team in football, but they’re one of football’s biggest messes.
Pick: Las Vegas to miss playoffs –400. Medium confidence.
Detroit @ Green Bay
The six games involving either of these two teams have averaged 45.2 points in regulation over the season’s first three weeks. I don’t think that’s where this number comes from, but it bears checking. The opponents in those games were the Falcons, the Falcons again, the Seahawks, the Bears, the Chiefs, and the Saints. The Saints and Falcons both pull scoring downwards, but I don’t think any of the other three do. We have this idea of the Lions and Packers as offense-first teams, and that’s probably fair, but it’s not as lopsided as one might assume. The Packers seem like they’ve been trying to be methodical on offense, something they might look to do again as a banged-up team hosting their division favorite. On a Thursday night, give us the under.
Pick: Under 45 (–110). Low confidence.
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky
This line has moved towards Western Kentucky since opening, I believe. I’m still surprised it’s only where it’s at.
Middle Tennessee hung with Missouri. Middle Tennessee was reasonably close to Colorado State. Don’t expect Middle Tennessee to put too much pressure on Western Kentucky tonight.
Western Kentucky isn’t a great team, but they’re one of the two best that Conference USA has to offer, and they know what they’re up against in MTSU. The Blue Raiders haven’t beaten the Hilltoppers since 2018, and WKU’s now into take–care–of–business mode as they begin conference play. Mizzou has had some serious issues. Colorado State was coming down off its Super Bowl and is a pretty bad team to begin with. Don’t worry about those last two weeks.
Pick: Western Kentucky –7 (–110). Low confidence.
Temple @ Tulsa
This is another where the line just isn’t adding up. Tulsa’s playing at home, and all three of Movelor, SP+, and FPI have Tulsa as the better team, with Movelor labeling Temple one of the ten worst FBS teams in the country. Maybe there’s a matchup piece we’re missing, but from what we can see, this is Tulsa’s to lose.
Pick: Tulsa –3.5 (–105). Low confidence.
