Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,172 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,631 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, two MLB futures, and a pair of football picks. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 95–71–5, we’re up 15.67 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –110). It’s been a rough couple weeks, but we’re looking for one last rally as we decide whether to do single-game bets through the postseason or just pick up our chips and focus on futures.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. So far, that has gone according to plan. We have about 260 units available right now, with payouts coming as the Twins and Brewers clinch their divisions over the next few days. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 108.73 units, or 14.5%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 10–18, and 10–16 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 9.00 units, and down 32%. Not going great, if we’re beign transparent here.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 1–6–3, we’re down 5.13 units, we’re down 51%. The trio of backdoor pushes last week was not a kind thing for the universe to do.
Anaheim @ Tampa Bay
This is a little scary, with the Rays likely out of it in the AL East and likely knowing that, and with Griffin Canning a solid starting pitcher. Zach Eflin’s been great, though, and this game is starting at 10:10 AM Anaheim time at the end of a long, sad season for the Angels. Carlos Estevez pitched last night. We think the Rays are going to win, and against a rough board, we’ll take that even at this steep price.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –265. Low confidence. (Canning and Eflin must start.)
ALCS
This is the best-value play out there, with the Blue Jays facing a tough schedule the rest of the way (four against the Yankees, six against the Rays) but finding themselves likely the only team with anything to play for in those matchups, and finding themselves likely only needing to go 5–5 to safely make the playoff field, thanks to the Rangers and Mariners playing one another ten more times. It’s great value, and we could use some power in the AL.
Pick: Toronto to win +1100. Medium confidence.
World Series
Speaking of the AL: The Blue Jays are now our only American League team who sits as a profitable scenario for us in the World Series market. We have a ton of upside on the Orioles and Twins in the pennant market, and a little upside on the Astros in that pennant market as well, but FanGraphs is really low on the AL’s chances of producing the World Series champion, relative to the market, likely owing to the fact that Atlanta is really, really good. So, since this is positive value, we’re going to take it. Ideally, we won’t have much hedging to do in October, but to make that the case, we’re going to need some AL horses. This is one. Ideally, we find another tomorrow.
Pick: Toronto to win +2200. Medium confidence.
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina
I think the Chants are benefiting here from a little bit of name power. They kept UCLA within two touchdowns to open the season, but two touchdowns is a pretty wide margin against a fringe top-25 team, and Coastal’s results since have been solid but not anything that screams, “This team might win the Sun Belt.” To their credit, they’ve outperformed Movelor’s expectations every week so far, which is rare (even Colorado, whom Movelor brutally mis-evaluated, hasn’t done that), but Movelor makes a lot out of big wins, so it should be high on these guys after they pounded Duquesne last week. On Georgia State, meanwhile, Movelor has an average absolute error of six points so far. Georgia State has met expectations. With Movelor putting this line close to three, we like what that says about our chances, especially with Darren Grainger playing such poised football over the first quarter of the regular season. Give us the Panthers to keep this Sun Belt opener close.
Pick: Georgia State +6.5 (–115). Low confidence.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
Well, there will be no push on this one.
The Giants looked great in the second half on Sunday, but they were playing the Cardinals, and while the Cardinals looked solid in the first half on Sunday, they were playing the Giants. We tend to believe running back absences are overvalued, but it doesn’t help New York to be without Saquon Barkley, and you could argue this line is getting some Thursday Night Effect already, with people expecting a more sluggish game. The Niners have yet to break a sweat. We don’t see them breaking one tonight.
Pick: San Francisco –10.5 (–115). Low confidence.
