Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,397 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For unit context, we started the portfolio with 520 units available to bet and 520 more in reserve, should we need them for hedging down the line. We have yet to tap into the hedging units.
World Series
The odds finally dropped on the Rays, and while they’re still probably the most purely valuable play out there, this is a good time to try to add some depth to the portfolio. The way ours is constructed, we have a lot of our AL value on the pennant side and a lot of our NL value on the World Series side, which—if we were seeking to balance the two, which is nice but not necessary—pushes us a little towards trying to double the NL World Series upside compared to the AL pennant upside.
This doesn’t quite do that (again, nice but not necessary), but it gives us solid value on one of the favorites and good value on a Wild Card, one who might not be the team they looked capable of being, but are still a great outfit, with a strong rotation, proven (even if struggling) arms in the bullpen, and two of the best players in the game anchoring their lineup. The results haven’t been their for the Padres, but the potential hasn’t gone anywhere. We’ll up our ante on them.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +550. Medium confidence.
Pick: San Diego to win +2500. Medium confidence.
