Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,030 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
More futures today, and as always with those, the odds come from Bovada because an up-to-date Vegas Consensus is hard to come by. First, though…
Toronto @ New York (AL)
The Blue Jays are not on par with the other seven American League playoff teams. But they’re still a competitive team themselves, and Masahiro Tanaka’s ERA’s a lot better than a) his ERA’s the last few years and b) his FIP. The odds are long, but they’re advantageous.
Pick: Toronto to win +195. Low confidence.
Texas @ Houston
The Astros continue to struggle, but they’re also a lot healthier than they’ve been, and Framber Valdez has a 3.33 FIP. Don’t bet the house on this—there are enough concerns to keep it from being even a medium confidence pick (as picks with odds like these normally are)—but it’s the third-best play on today’s board.
Pick: Houston to win -240. Low confidence.
Cleveland @ Detroit
Yes, Shane Bieber should be expected to dominate tonight. Even so, he’ll likely give up at least a run or two, and while Casey Mize has looked better of late, the wind’s also blowing out tonight in Detroit.
Pick: Over 7.5 +100. Low confidence.
Futures
As always with these at this point in the year, check if they make sense for your portfolio, but there’s value on all three. With the Twins gaining on the White Sox and the Yankees gaining on the Rays, there are a few paths opening in which the Twins wouldn’t have to face Gerrit Cole in Game One of a three-game series. Cleveland’s losing streak won’t last forever. And while the Reds have a tough slate the rest of the way, they’re in playoff position as of today, and they have the pitching to hold on and power them through what could be a mediocre half of the NL bracket.
Pick: Minnesota to win ALCS +600. Low confidence.
Pick: Cleveland to win ALCS +1200. Low confidence.
Pick: Cincinnati to win NLCS +2500. Low confidence.
