Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,144 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.2% across 1,622 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, two MLB futures, and a pick each in the NFL and college football against the spread. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 94–66–4, we’re up 19.80 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 91.15 units, or 12.2%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 8–13, and 8–11 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 5.77 units, and down 27%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 0–5. I know. I’m impressed with us too.
Cincinnati @ Detroit
The Reds emptied their bullpen last night, and while it would be very 2023 Cincinnati Reds to win today with no bullpen and a Derek Law/Ben Lively combo on the mound, this is a pretty good price for one you’d think David Bell is probably chalking up internally as a loss. Reese Olson had a bad little run a few starts ago, but he seems to be back on track, and some of the bad run was the BABIP monster.
Pick: Detroit to win –115. Low confidence. (Law and Olson must start.)
World Series
The odds keep holding on Atlanta, and we keep taking them. They’re the best value out there right now. With the Astros, the value’s narrow, but it’s positive. They could miss the playoffs. That’s a real possibility. But if they’re in, they’re going to either be the AL favorite or be favored to win their Wild Card Series and become the AL favorite.
Pick: Atlanta to win +300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win +600. Medium confidence.
Navy @ Memphis
Movelor only has this at 13.6, but SP+ is very confident in Memphis, setting the line around 27. The obvious concern with Navy is that the slower game will reduce possession count and keep it too close, but it’s hard to justify any bet but this one. We’re still trying to figure out how good Memphis is, but we know Navy is pretty bad. We’ll take our chances and hope Memphis doesn’t have to settle for field goals.
Pick: Memphis –13.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Minnesota @ Philadelphia
The Vikings were one of the most disappointing teams of Week 1, but the Eagles didn’t look great themselves. Where I land with this is that if the Vikings are average, which seems the most reasonable evaluation, then the Eagles only need to be three points better than average on a neutral field for this line to make sense. I have a hard time believing that this Eagles team isn’t three points better than average.
Pick: Philadelphia –6 (–110). Low confidence.
