Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,599 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.1% isn’t much, but it’s positive, and that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have some futures today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. We also have a college football play, which we’ll put in after all the baseball. It’s a busy day. First, today’s picks:
Chicago (AL) @ Houston
Yes, bullpen usage will be aggressive. But at the same time, managers have to worry about the next day. I’m curious if last night’s low-scorer (and even Tuesday’s relative low-scorer) has dragged these down.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Boston @ Tampa Bay
Eduardo Rodriguez’s xERA and FIP are way below his ERA, which often spells opportunity, and does in this case as well. Even with that, though, there’s value on the over here too.
Pick: Boston to win +130. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 8 (-105). Low confidence.
Now, the futures:
ALDS: Chicago (AL) @ Houston
This is rather close to a tossup, and if we use the bullpen rule (which is our impression that the market is valuing bullpens higher than the numbers we use, and perhaps rightfully so), it moves even further in the White Sox’ favor. Good value.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +111. Low confidence.
World Series: Exact Matchup
One of our rules of the market these days is that the Red Sox are undervalued, so the first of these allows us to use that to make one specific unprofitable route (Dodgers over Red Sox) profitable for our portfolio. For the second, there’s just some slight undervaluation of each team, but the effect on our portfolio is the same: This shores up that flank. Currently, we’ve got 17 profitable routes, 14 unprofitable routes, and one in the middle, with around a 55% profit probability we’re hoping to increase with a Red Sox win tonight.
Pick: Boston vs. Los Angeles +850. Low confidence.
Pick: Chicago (AL) vs. Milwaukee +1800. Low confidence.
And finally, college football:
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State
Coastal Carolina’s been wrecking teams, Arkansas State’s been getting wrecked on defense. Maybe the Red Wolves score enough to keep this close, but maybe they don’t.
Pick: Coastal Carolina -20.5. Low confidence.
