Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of +0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,576 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +4.1% across 1,950 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
Today’s MLB futures and tonight’s football. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. Using FanGraphs probabilities and including today’s plays, our mean expected final return on those 750 units is 150.89 units, or 20.1%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 45–40–2. We’re up 1.62 units and up 2%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 7–13–5; we’re down 6.86 units; and we’re down 27%.
World Series (Hedge)
As with yesterday’s, these units are a hedge. Today, we’re only putting 54 of them down. The value’s on the Diamondbacks, but we’ve already got a lot of that value in our portfolio. This is about converting it to profit.
Pick: Texas to win –168. Medium confidence. x27
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech
There isn’t a lot we like tonight, but if we had to guess, we’d guess too much is being made of Syracuse allowing 40 points in each of the last two games. These offenses should have some issues tonight in Blacksburg.
Pick: Under 47.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Tampa Bay @ Buffalo
There’s a Bills bounceback narrative, and we don’t really believe in it. We aren’t anti-Bills, but ten points is a lot of points in the NFL.
Pick: Tampa Bay +10 (–115). Low confidence.
