Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,649 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.2% isn’t amazing, but it’s positive, and we are locked into a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have futures again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. We also have some college football at the bottom. First, though:
Atlanta @ Los Angeles
The Dodgers’ bullpen is good.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -142. Low confidence.
Pick: Under 8 (-115). Low confidence.
World Series
The first of these is a hedge, and possibly the completion of our hedging. The Dodgers’ odds aren’t advantageous, but in the context of our portfolio as a whole, they accomplish something important for our profitability probability.
The second…
This is a steal.
Look at these numbers next to each other. One team has three games to win in a row and would enter the World Series with an out-of-whack rotation. The other just needs to win two in a row, and would likely be favored to win it all if they do win those two games.
All year, we’ve hammered the Red Sox when the market’s given us the chance. We’re doing it again today. They’re probably going to lose, but the value’s too good to pass up (for those curious, our portfolio profits no matter what, and has a minimum ROI, as it stands [so this will change], of something like 40% so long as the Dodgers don’t come back).
Pick: Los Angeles to win +625. Low confidence.
Pick: Boston to win +950. Low confidence.
San José State @ UNLV
I’m not entirely sure what’s going on with this, but for as underwhelming as San José State is and has been especially on offense…UNLV’s one of the worst teams in the country. Period. The Spartans might not pull away, but winning by a touchdown is a reasonable expectation.
Pick: San José State -4 (-110). Low confidence.
