Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,079 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 4% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 4%’s into a whole lot more than 4% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
One future in addition to the game picks. Odds for the future come from Bovada due to the absence of a current Vegas Consensus online.
Cincinnati @ Atlanta
It’s possible Luis Castillo and Ian Anderson will do what Trevor Bauer and Max Fried did yesterday. It’s possible the bullpens of the Reds and Braves will once again perform admirably, and manage to escape when they don’t.
It’s also possible this will play out in a more conventional manner. Castillo and Anderson are good, but they aren’t Bauer and Fried. The bullpens are at the least going to be fatigued. If you want to get deep into things we don’t know the impact of, this is the second day in a row with the early start time, and there are arguments to be made for that making the offenses both more awake (more adjusted to the start time) and more tired (playing on two straight short nights of sleep).
We’ll see, but don’t let recency bias sway you too strongly.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Miami @ Chicago (NL)
If this were a regular season game, the Cubs would be an easy favorite. Yu Darvish on the mound against a Marlins team missing Starling Marte? One of the bigger favorites of an average week.
As it is, there’s some fear to be had. The pressure of an elimination game is real, and it should be a cold, damp day, the impact of which is hard to assess.
On the whole, trust the numbers. The Cubs are the better team. The Cubs have the better pitcher. The Cubs are fully intact. But don’t go overboard.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win -205. Low confidence.
NL Wild Card Series: St. Louis @ San Diego
If you’ve been following these picks exactly, you have a lot of money on the Padres to win both the NLCS and the World Series. In that case, this is an ok opportunity to do a small hedge—the Cardinals are undervalued. Either way, though, there’s value here. The Padres have a great lineup, but without Clevinger and Lamet, their pitching is on the poorer end of playoff options. No, the Cardinals aren’t great, but they aren’t a bad team, and a 1-0 lead is large in a three-game series.
Pick: St. Louis to win -190. Low confidence.
