Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,366 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,754 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
Today’s MLB futures, plus picks for the NFL and college football tonight. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 78.52 units, or 10.5%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 42–33–1. We’re up 5.96 units and up 8%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 6–11–5; we’re down 5.77 units; and we’re down 26%.
ALCS (Hedge)
We’re getting direct with our hedging, going right at our liability. This is bad value, but it isn’t as bad as the value on the Rangers to win the World Series. All we’re doing is making sure we still have equal upside to downside in our worst-case scenario entering the final round. It’s strictly portfolio management.
Pick: Texas to win –205. Medium confidence. x12
World Series
One play we do like? Arizona at these odds to win it all. The Diamondbacks are too likely to come back to be saddled with this 18-to-1 price. They’re not all that likely to come back, but 18-to-1 at this stage—where they need eight wins in twelve games, provided they win them in the right order—is a steal.
Pick: Arizona to win +1800. Medium confidence.
James Madison @ Marshall
It’s a bit unusual to see a team that’s a media darling appear undervalued by markets, relative to Movelor. We’ve seen the opposite of this with Wyoming and Colorado and large swaths of the ACC. But, consistently this season, JMU’s been slept on by betting markets. They’re 4–2 now against the spread, and while that doesn’t have any bearing on whether the spread is right or wrong tonight, it’s unusual and worth mentioning.
What’s happening with this game is that Marshall enters stumbling and JMU enters on a roll, and again, usually that gets overhyped, but for whatever reason it isn’t tonight. We like the Dukes to cover.
Pick: James Madison –3.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Rice @ Tulsa
It’s a different situation here. Few are paying attention to either Rice or Tulsa.
My guess is that part of Tulsa’s undervaluation comes from uncertainty over who will start at quarterback tonight and that man’s health. Where this gets twisted is that Tulsa’s recent results would lead you to believe they’d cover even this number.
Pick: Tulsa –3.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Jacksonville @ New Orleans
In the NFL, we’re in on the Jaguars tonight. Why? We think they’re the better team.
Aside from the Week 3 loss to the Texans, the Jaguars have done more than has been asked of them as the AFC South favorites. They’ve got a 3–1 division record, they’ve upset the Bills, the Chiefs didn’t smoke them, and they have a comfortable win over the Falcons on their team sheet. The Saints? In addition to their own loss to Houston, they’ve dropped games against the Buccaneers and the Packers, neither of whom is a slam dunk to make the playoffs.
This is a very simplistic approach, but sometimes that’s the right way to go. Here’s hoping it is tonight.
Pick: Jacksonville +2 (–110). Low confidence.
