Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,627 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.1% isn’t amazing, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One future today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Los Angeles @ San Francisco
I…I think the Giants have the better pitching here. The Dodgers have a well-stocked pond out there in the bullpen, but the Giants could realistically go ten or more innings with Logan Webb and Kevin Gausman if they want to. It’s an elimination game, so there might be pinches, but it’s hard to believe Camilo Doval or Tyler Rogers or Kervin Castro or anyone will be asked to do too much. The Giants will go with their ace, and then likely their other ace, and those two aces are good enough that they should be able to grab the offense enough time. We’ll see, of course, but I think this actually somehow leans Giants. What a world.
Pick: San Francisco to win -108. Low confidence.
World Series: Exact Matchup
This is a hedge, but a little bit on why we’re choosing it rather than choosing Houston vs. San Francisco:
The way our futures portfolio is currently structured, we’re in bad shape if either 1) the Giants and Astros play in the World Series or 2) the Dodgers beat the Astros in the World Series. Anything else happens, we’re in wonderful, wonderful shape (actually, the Dodgers beating the Red Sox would only be a mediocre-but-positive outcome, but we’d have some leverage there to make it better). We have a limited budget until the LCS’s end, unless we want to broaden the fund behind the portfolio (which is a valid option, but one we’d like to avoid). We’re using that budget to try to hedge ourselves into being ok with those bad scenarios outlined above.
Opportunities to do this will be better if Atlanta or Boston takes an early series lead. The odds will get long on Houston or LA/SF, and we’ll be able to affordably place some small hedges that raise our worst-case scenario to, ideally, something positive. If both Atlanta and Boston fall behind, though, the opportunities will be more challenging. The odds will be shorter. We may have to broaden the fund.
Either Los Angeles or San Francisco will be favored in a series with Atlanta. San Francisco will have home field advantage, which does help them, but they’re also likely to use both Logan Webb and Kevin Gausman tonight, which hurts. Alex Wood is good, but he’s no Webb or Gausman. The Dodgers, meanwhile, if they win, have a number of paths to doing that which don’t involve turning to Max Scherzer. Scherzer, on two days of rest, is a less preferable pre-Kenley Jansen bullpen option than Blake Treinen. He’s less preferable than Joe Kelly. He’s less preferable than Corey Knebel and Brusdar Graterol. Dave Roberts is rather unlikely to turn to Scherzer tonight, especially in scenarios in which the Dodgers win, which then means Scherzer would be lined up to start Game 1 in Atlanta on normal rest, a setting in which the Dodgers would be substantially favored to put Atlanta into a 1-0 hole and grab home field advantage over the rest of the series.
So, we’re taking Houston/LA here rather than Houston/SF. Not because it’s much better value (they’re comparable in value, neither is particularly good value but again, we’re hedging), but because it’s less likely to be available at good value over the next four days. Either way, though, we’re really leaning on Boston and/or Atlanta.
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles +350. Low confidence.
