Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,351 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.0% across 1,753 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
We’ve got today’s MLB futures, and we’ve got both college football and the NFL tonight. Here’s the context on each.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 106.37 units, or 14.2%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 35–29–1. We’re up 3.60 units and up 6%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 4–10–5; we’re down 6.54 units; we’re down 34%. We’ve been getting smoked.
ALCS (Hedge)
Our situation is this: We have a lot of value in our current portfolio, but we need to make sure we turn it into a real return. Right now, most of our value comes from the Diamondbacks. As our portfolio stands, if the Diamondbacks were to win the World Series we’d net more than 500 units on the season. Other scenarios net us closer to 50 units, or 100. One scenario—that in which the Rangers win the World Series—leaves us losing somewhere between 50 and 150. That’s the one we have to hedge against, because the Rangers are not valuable at current prices.
When hedging, we’re trying to hedge the minimum amount possible, spending the least of our units in a bad-value way. So, what we’re trying to do here is get ourselves to a position where in a hypothetical series between the Rangers and the Braves or Phillies, our upside equals our downside. We want that as our baseline as soon as we can get there. This doesn’t make that happen, but if we repeat it over the next three days heading into Game 1, it’ll leave us close, and hopefully these odds shift or value materializes on the other side of the hypothetical matchup in the meantime. If we can find value on the winner between the Braves and the Phillies, we don’t have to place these hedges. Until then? Ten units on this one.
Pick: Texas to win +125. Medium confidence. x5
West Virginia @ Houston
The Dana Holgorsen Bowl.
West Virginia probably isn’t as good as its 4–1 record. All of its FBS wins have been in doubt. At the same time, the defense has done good things, and they do keep winning, which is occasionally a skill. Also? Everyone knows West Virginia isn’t as good as its record. That’s ultimately what this comes down to: We understand the logic behind betting Houston tonight, but it relies on a lot of maybes. Betting West Virginia relies on looking at who is the better team and looking at who has better results. Maybe they go down, but we think they keep the Cougs at arm’s reach and keep the magic going.
Pick: West Virginia –3 (–106). Low confidence.
Denver @ Kansas City
I’m scared of a backdoor cover at the 10.5-point line, and I think it’s easy to overthink things. Each of the Broncos’ last four games has landed over this total, and while the Chiefs have a better defense than most of those opponents (not the Jets), they have a better offense, too. The offense is better-er.
Pick: Over 46.5 (–105). Low confidence.
