Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,977 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got a college basketball pick for tonight, and we’ve got our Thursday Night Football pick. On the college football futures front: We said previously we might have some tomorrow or Saturday, but to be clear, we also could have some on Sunday morning. Anything goes right now. If you’ve somehow managed to follow that portfolio through our last-minute posting and inconsistent schedule, first of all God bless you, secondly we are sorry, and thirdly keep your eyes peeled.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 16–10. We’re up 4.49 units and we’re up 17%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 14–20–7. Only trailing by a touchdown. We’re down 7.48 units and we’re down 18%.
UC Davis @ Oregon State
Our free throw strategy worked last night despite Colorado State missing a lot of free throws down the stretch. We don’t know if that’s conclusive evidence for or against it, but we’ve been winning a lot through this strategy despite results not yet coming down to free throws (with the exception, again, of last night—kind of). We’ll stick with it and take the Beavers in Corvallis.
Pick: Oregon State –2.5 (–114). Low confidence.
Seattle @ Dallas
We might be overreacting to last week, but it does seem the Seahawks are landing back on earth, and this is the time of the season, across all sports, when the best teams often take off. We don’t love taking a big favorite on a Thursday night, but given our track record this season, maybe that’s a good thing.
Pick: Dallas –9.5 (–110). Low confidence.
