Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,202 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.3% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Gonzaga vs. Kansas
Gonzaga and Kansas open their seasons with a bang today, gracing our Thanksgiving with one of the best games we could ask for.
As is often the case around games with a lot of excitement, the total’s been surging on and off through the morning. As it stands, there’s value to be had taking the under. Kansas’s strength is its defense, and Gonzaga’s expected to take a big step forward defensively this year as well—that’s a big piece of why the numbers are so high on them.
It might be close, and overtime’s a risk, but if you’re going to bet on this, take the under.
Pick: Under 151 (-110). Low confidence.
Liberty vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State looked terrible yesterday offensively, but at some level, that can be attributed to Clemson, and at some level, that many missed shots shouldn’t be expected to happen two days in a row. The market seems to have overreacted a bit here.
Pick: Over 125 (-110). Low confidence.
Rhode Island vs. Boston College
Rhode Island and Boston College both impressed last night, hanging with Villanova and Arizona State, respectively. Neither has a great outlook for the rest of the year—they aren’t bad overall, but they’re in the middle and bottom of their conference projections, and that’s a recipe for a lot of losses. But last night was nice for each, and a reminder that teams will surprise us.
One red flag regarding URI’s performance—and this was a small piece of what went well, so don’t put too much stock in it—was their three-point shooting. 50% nights from three are rare, even on just 18 attempts, and holding ASU to 30% shooting from deep, while impressive and on-brand for a great perimeter defense, created a disparity that will be tough to routinely recreate. Again, it wasn’t exactly a gunner of a game, but from what we know, BC’s the better team.
Pick: Boston College to win (-110). Low confidence.
